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Saeculum

About this tool

Based on Strauss-Howe generational theory, this visualization tracks the ~80-year cycle of American history. We're currently in the Fourth Turning (Crisis era, 2008–2030)—the same phase as the Civil War, Great Depression, and WWII. Explore how gold, debt, inequality, and polarization behave across seasons.

The Fourth Turning: Economic Cycles

Gold price in USD measures purchasing power preservation against fiat debasement.

Civil War Inflation
Gold Confiscation
WWII Repression
Nixon Shock
Volcker Rate Hike
Dot Com Peak
GFC Crisis
COVID Stimulus
Gold Price
Crisis (Winter)
Turning Boundary

The Pattern

Crisis periods (highlighted zones) correlate with peaks in debt, gold, inequality, and polarization—and troughs in the Dow/Gold ratio. Real rates go deeply negative during financial repression. The pattern repeats roughly every 80 years.

Where We Are Now

2024 mirrors 1929 and 1864: debt at record highs, inequality back to Gilded Age peaks, and polarization at 0.96—near Civil War levels. History rhymes.

Cycle Timeline

18601866Civil War Crisis
18661886Reconstruction High
18861908Third Great Awakening
19081929Progressive/Prohibition
19291946Depression & WWII
19461964American High
19641984Consciousness Revolution
19842008Culture Wars
20082025Millennial Crisis
Data Sources: Historical gold prices from NBER Macrohistory Database & ICE Benchmark Administration. Debt/GDP from Federal Reserve FRED. Inequality estimates from Piketty, Saez & Zucman. Cycle framework from Strauss & Howe, "The Fourth Turning" (1997).
Visualization for educational purposes only.