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The Line
About this tool
The SPX/GOLD ratio measures equity strength relative to hard money. When the ratio drops below 1.50, it signals a regime shift—historically preceding major market corrections. Only 2 breaches in 50+ years, both followed by significant drawdowns.
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SPX / GOLD
Ratio • Linear
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ABOVE LINE
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Current
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Threshold
1.50
Status
...
Breaches
2
in 50+ years
Avg Drawdown
-52%
after breach
◈
The Line
Ratio of S&P 500 to Gold price. When ratio drops below 1.50, it signals a regime shift from equities to hard assets.
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Breach Signal
Only 2 breaches in 50+ years. Both preceded major corrections. The signal is rare but historically significant.
📉
1973 Breach
Oil crisis, end of gold standard. S&P fell -48% over 2 years as inflation surged and gold repriced.
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2008 Breach
Global Financial Crisis. S&P fell -57% from peak. Gold surged as safe haven bid intensified.
Data Sources
Prices: Yahoo Finance API
S&P 500: SPY ETF
Gold: GLD ETF (×10)
Pre-2004 data from FRED, historical records